@Article{CostaHerdSouz:2022:NuDiAn,
               author = "Costa, Saulo Barros and Herdies, Dirceu Lu{\'{\i}}s and Souza, 
                         Diego Oliveira de",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Centro Nacional de 
                         Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)}",
                title = "Extreme Precipitation Events on the East Coast of Brazil’s 
                         Northeast: Numerical and Diagnostic Analysis",
              journal = "Water (Switzerland)",
                 year = "2022",
               volume = "14",
               number = "19",
                pages = "e3135",
                month = "Oct.",
             keywords = "natural disasters, weather analyses, WRF configurations.",
             abstract = "The Northeast of Brazil (NEB) is the region with the highest 
                         number of municipal decrees of emergency situation declaration 
                         caused by weather events in the period from 2013 to 2022 and with 
                         the highest rate of natural disasters per risk area. In the NEB, 
                         the city of Recife and its metropolitan region are the biggest 
                         localities with populations in risk areas. Focusing on this 
                         region, five events of extreme precipitation were chosen for 
                         simulations using the WRF model and diagnostics analyses. First, a 
                         set of configurations of the model was tested, including 11 
                         microphysics (MPH) schemes, 9 planetary boundary layer (PBL) 
                         schemes, 5 cumulus (CUM), and 7 surface layer (SFC) schemes. Then, 
                         through diagnostic analysis, the conditional instability, the 
                         moisture supply at low levels, and the support of the medium and 
                         high levels in storm formation were verified. The models 
                         configurations were verified by 298 rain gauges with hourly 
                         registrations through statistical metrics such as bias, MSE, 
                         standard deviation, and Pearsons correlation, and demonstrated 
                         that the MPH schemes of Thompson Aerosol-Aware and NSSL + CCM, 
                         ACM2, MYJ for the PBL, KFCuP for CUM, and RUC for SFC were 
                         considered the best. All the cases were better with CUM 
                         parametrizations turned on. In all cases, diagnostics analyses 
                         highlighted the strong moisture flux convergence at the low 
                         levels, the presence of wind shear on the middle layer, weak 
                         cyclonic vorticity advection at high levels, and CAPE values 
                         around 1500 J/kg, in addition to an inverse relationship between 
                         wind shear action and CAPE values. This work is part of the 
                         national strategy for monitoring, diagnosis, and modeling of 
                         information that can minimize or even prevent damage caused by 
                         severe precipitation events.",
                  doi = "10.3390/w14193135",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w14193135",
                 issn = "2073-4441",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "water-14-03135-v3.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "11 maio 2024"
}